Hey, investors. Mark Galasiewski here.

One of the more interesting relationships revealed by socioeconomics — the science of history and social prediction — is that between bear markets in stocks and outbreaks of geopolitical conflict. Let me give you an example using the most significant global conflicts of the past few years.

Russia attacked Ukraine in early 2022 after emerging market stocks had been falling in a bear market for about a year, starting a war that has so far killed hundreds of thousands of people.

Hamas then attacked Israel in the wake of that bear market near the end of a secondary low, starting a war that has so far killed tens of thousands of people.

Months later, as emerging market stocks continued to rise, Israel then bombed Iran’s embassy in Syria, killing 16 people and provoking an Iranian reprisal on Israel involving 300 drones.

Our May 2024 issue subsequently noted the decreasing size of the conflicts and said that it fit our bullish outlook for emerging market stocks. The decreasing size of the conflicts as the ETF has trended sideways is the mass social equivalent of a volatility indicator contracting “ahead of a sustained uptrend,” we wrote.

Since then, the uptrend in emerging markets has accelerated, and the sector appears to have emerged from the ashes even as the conflicts continue to smolder.

But how long is the uptrend likely to last? And what opportunities does it offer investors? To know the answers to those questions, read the current issue of Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast or Global Market Perspective.